The summer was largely positive for the housing market due to a boost in confidence following the General Election and the reduction to Bank Rate. So, where are we now and what does the autumn have in store?
Lenders and buyers alike were already showing signs of confidence before the election, as mortgage approvals steadily improved.
Post-election boom
After the election, there was a noticeable uptick in buyer and seller confidence. In July, new instructions were 7% higher than the 2017-2019 average for the month, sales agreed were up 10%1, while buyer enquiries were up 11% year-on-year2. Overall, this boost in activity had a positive impact on house prices, which continued to grow modestly. The post-election buzz was boosted further in August by the first reduction to Bank Rate since 2020.
Rental inflation slowing
Data suggests that we have moved past peak rental inflation, with rents rising at the slowest rate since 20213. If rents continue to increase at the rate they are now, they will have gone up by 3-4% in 2024 – an improvement on the 8% and 11% seen in 2023 and 2022 respectively.
What does the autumn hold?
Rightmove’s property expert, Tim Bannister, observed, “the conditions are there for a more active autumn market.” They predict that, by the end of 2024, house prices will be 1% higher than they were the previous year. Meanwhile, Zoopla expects mortgage rates to stay around 4-4.5% for the rest of 2024. It is thought that wages will keep rising while house prices remain consistent, thus improving buyer affordability.
2025 and beyond
Looking ahead, experts predict the market to continue a slow but steady recovery. Zoopla’s Executive Director of Research, Richard Donnell, commented, “Economists currently expect base rates to fall to 3.5% by the end of 2025, which would imply mortgage rates remaining in and around the 4%+ range.”
In terms of broader trends, it is expected that energy efficient homes and houses located in close proximity to public transport will continue to be highly sought after, and a focus on employment flexibility widens the net in terms of where people are looking to move and achieve the quality of life they want.
1TwentyCI, 2024
2Rightmove, 2024
3Zoopla, 2024
As a mortgage is secured against your home or property, it could be repossessed if you do not keep up mortgage repayments.
